Executive summary
As one of the world’s most trade-dependent food producers, New Zealand exports over 80 percent of its total food production, binding its economic success to the stability and openness of global markets. Strong demand from key trading partners, particularly China, the United States of America, and the European Union, continues to underpin value creation across the food sector. These relationships deliver strong value, but their interconnected nature introduces some reliance on a small number of markets, leaving us exposed to changes in policy, demand, sentiment, and geopolitical dynamics.
Over recent decades, New Zealand has worked deliberately to diversify market access through agreements such as the CPTPP, RCEP, and the EU and UK Free Trade Agreements, strengthening its presence across multiple trade regions. These frameworks serve the country well but cannot fully shield exporters from shifting geopolitical dynamics, rising protectionism, and the growing influence of climate-linked regulation. The uncomfortable reality is that, despite New Zealand’s significant role in global food trade, its total production would have little impact on overall global supply if it ceased. Continued relevance and value depends not on volume, but on being credible, complementary, and genuinely desired, sustained through integrity, transparency, and trusted partnerships.
This study combines a literature review with 21 interviews across six primary sectors: kiwifruit, dairy, apples, hops, honey, and vegetables. It examines how New Zealand industries have adapted to changing global dynamics over time. Analysis shows that enduring competitiveness is determined not by scale alone, but by structure, alignment, innovation and responsiveness and ultimately the ability to deliver differentiated value.
The Kiwifruit industry demonstrates the power of coordinated governance, protected innovation, and disciplined quality systems. Dairy illustrates how scale and niche innovation can coexist through ingredient specialisation and customer co-development. In contrast, apples, hops, and honey have each enjoyed long periods of success built on quality and innovation, but recent challenges with coordination, consistency, and collective direction have begun to dilute brand equity and erode premiums.
Across sectors, five enablers of lasting competitiveness emerge – innovation that matches genuine demand; verifiable integrity; deep customer partnerships; efficient and scalable supply systems; and resilience built through collaboration and strategic investment. Industries that embed these conditions remain relevant through volatility because they are needed and complementary, not merely liked.
Strategic capital plays a critical role in this transition. Aligning with offshore investors who bring capability, technology, and market access can expand scale and share risk, provided these partnerships strengthen rather than displace domestic value capture. Well-designed co-investment frameworks, transparent reporting, and performance-based incentives can position foreign capital as a collaborative enabler, not an acquirer.
At the policy level, stability and bipartisan endurance in climate, energy, and trade frameworks are essential to anchor confidence and attract long-term investment. Likewise, co-investment in integrity infrastructure, including traceability, verification, and provenance systems, will help protect access and reinforce credibility in premium markets.
New Zealand’s comparative advantage is shifting from natural resources toward systems of integrity, innovation, and trust. Its future strength lies not in being the cheapest supplier but the most reliable, transparent, and strategically aligned partner. By embedding global customers and capital within its integrity systems, maintaining stable energy, climate and trade policy, and continuously investing in verified credibility, New Zealand can transform trust from a reputational claim into a durable competitive advantage.
Olivia Smith
